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David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights
Perron played a significant role in the Golden Knights’ regular-season success. Skating on the second line with Neal and Erik Haula, the veteran winger led the club in assists (50), while his 66 points in 70 games ranked third.
An upper-body injury sidelined Perron for the final six games of the regular season and first two games of the opening round, and an illness kept him out of two games during the Western Conference Final. He’s been limited to just seven points (all assists) in 11 playoff contests.
With time to rest between the conference final and Stanley Cup Final, Perron might be able to put his recent health issues behind him. If so, he could provide a big boost to the Golden Knights offense.
Tom Wilson, Washington Capitals
Every team has an agitator who can get under his opponent’s skin. Skating on the Capitals’ top line with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov, Wilson has done a fine job driving opponents to distraction. A hustling, physical forward who doesn’t shy away from the rough stuff, the 6’4″, 218-pounder has also tallied 11 points in 16 postseason contests.
Wilson’s sometimes undisciplined antics, though, can result in costly penalties. During the second round, he received a three-game suspension for a hit to the head of Penguins forward Zach Aston-Reese, who missed the last three games of the series.
When focused, however, Wilson can turn the tide of a game with a goal, a well-timed hit or a fight. He could become a crucial factor for the Capitals in their drive for their first Stanley Cup championship.
The Golden Knights Will Win If…
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Marc Sanchez/Associated Press
Fleury maintains his stellar form between the pipes, they get more from their secondary scorers and improve their faceoff win percentage.
Fleury’s performance is the talk of the playoffs. His stellar goaltending has offset the high number of shots (33.7 per game) Vegas has given up. He’s also a big reason why it has the fourth-best penalty-killing percentage (82.5) entering the Final.
The Golden Knights’ aggressive forechecking system has also been a crucial part of their success. Still, they could use more production beyond their top line of center Karlsson and wingers Marchessault and Reilly Smith. They’re the only Golden Knights’ scorers with double-digit point totals.
More troubling for Vegas is its performance in the faceoff circle. Its 47.8 faceoff win percentage is third-worst among postseason clubs. That could adversely affect it on the power play and in penalty-killing situations. If the Golden Knights can improve that stat, it may be a crucial factor in their first Stanley Cup victory.
The Capitals Will Win If…
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Chris O’Meara/Associated Press
Their scoring punch stays strong, Holtby out-duels Fleury and they do a better job of killing penalties.
Led by playoff scoring leaders Kuznetsov and Ovechkin, the Capitals possess both the second-best goals per game average (3.47) and second-best power-play percentage (28.8). Seven players—Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, Backstrom, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Lars Eller and Wilson—have double-digit point totals. They’ll be tough for the Golden Knights to contain.
Among goaltenders who’ve played more than four games, Holtby is second to Fleury in goals-against average, tied for second in shutouts and third in save percentage. He’s outplayed such notables as Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky, Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray and Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. If Holtby outperforms Fleury in this series, Washington could win its first Cup.
The Capitals’ penalty-killing percentage (75.4) ranks 10th among postseason clubs. While the Golden Knights’ power play (17.6) is also 10th, their energetic forecheck could prove a handful for Washington’s penalty killers. In what could be a closely contested Cup Final, killing penalties could make the difference.
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One of these teams will skate away as the Stanley Cup champion, and the other will just skate away.
Winning the Cup would provide a Hollywood ending to an amazing first season for the Vegas Golden Knights. After their dominating regular-season and playoff performances, they enter this series as slight favorites, per OddsShark. They’re a well-built, well-coached, hard-working team that hit the ground running in its first season and appears to have a bright future.
Meanwhile, the Capitals have emerged after years of disappointment and criticism. Ovechkin, one of the greatest scorers in NHL history, needs a Stanley Cup to complete his impressive resume. This could be the last, best opportunity for him and his teammates to win it all.
With Ovie performing like a man on a mission and the Caps playing well at both ends of the rink, they should have enough to overcome the plucky Golden Knights.